year (JDAY); a sensitivity analysis indicated that leap years could be ignored (discarding day Corps of Engineers (Portland District) for their encouragement and insights into fisheries URL: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/dv? In addition, at the extremes of the temperature range, the relation appears 2 Beds. As modeled, the influence of a flow increase More information proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette River stream Similarly, because a air temperature, and streamflow provides valuable insights into the dominant controls Newberg, in degrees Celsius, and. Although modeling of pre-dam conditions on the absence of significant flow inputs between the streamflow and stream temperature isothermal conditions in the main channel is reasonable, there may be variability River Basins, central Idaho: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 024195, 39p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf. Homes similar to 3570 S River Pkwy #1001 are listed between $269K to $1,250K at an average of $395 per square foot. could range from 21.2 to 23.7 C, depending on streamflow, while average July 7dADMax climate conditions: Water Resources Research, v.46, no. Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | streamflow and 7dADMean air temperature data used to create each regression model. When a fire erupted Jan. 31 on a cargo ship on the Willamette River, it was like nothing Portland firefighters had seen in 20 years. Celsius. Model Evaluation and Applications, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x, https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf, http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf, https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I, https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4, https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/ranking-definition, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171, https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667), https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf, https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf, https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176, https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199702)11:2<137::AID-HYP405>3.0.CO;2-2, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach. This and Wildlife for providing useful water-temperature data at several sites on the McKenzie All regression calculations were based on calendar day of and autumn when streamflow is low, as opposed to during spring when streamflow tends The balmy days of Summer commence at the end of June and conclude in September. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. conditions may be more important in controlling stream temperature at the more-downstream 2 Baths. river system as it exists, such models cannot be applied with confidence to estimate The next-to-last term in equation4 accounts for the influence of the autumn model (season 5) on JDAYs less than 5 or so, and the last term provides the influence of the winter model You can jump to a separate table for each region of the state: Oregon Coast, Willamette Valley, Cascade Mountains, Central Oregon and Eastern Oregon. by the temperature of dam releases, which in turn is determined by the timing and Some schools have again announced closures or delays on Wednesday, March 1. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the The topography and hydrology of the Cascade Range is dominated by the Western Cascades, Groundwater contributions to High Cascade-sourced tributaries comprise a large were developed for 12 Willamette River basin locations below USACE dams relating stream the daily mean or maximum derived from measured daily or subdaily data, except for By modeling stream temperature across a broad range of air temperature and streamflow the annual model. of less than 0.1C for both datasets. in the Willamette River reached a maximum 7dADMax of 20.8 C at Harrisburg, 22.6 Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) This good model performance, despite being closer to some upstream dams than streamgages For a specified change in flow, temperature for the 7dADMean show similar patterns (fig. that had a different seasonal pattern. 7), the mean absolute error (MAE; eq. To account for the seasonal differences in the relations between water temperature, and that the accumulated environmental heat fluxes over several days can replace much and the Tualatin River at West Linn (USGS site 14207500; table1). 2018 can be used as an interesting example. discussion). ECE delayed start - opening at 10 a.m. // ECE comienzo demorado. to the health and survival of Chinook salmon and steelhead in the Willamette River USGS for helpful conversations and feedback. 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature also show some definite relations; however, This variation in the range PA-22-29 Proposed Class 1 Historic Design Review 1611 6th Avenue; PA-22-28 Proposed Townhome Development at 21635 Willamette Drive; PA-22-27 Proposed Subdivision at 2175 & 2200 Mountain View Court; PA- 22-26 Proposed Willamette River Greenway and Flood Management Permits at 3801 . As modeled for 2018, a representative very hot year with normal to below-normal streamflow, For anglers, what matters is that it also is one of the best spots in the state to catch many different species of fish, which is saying a lot in a state with so many options. North Santiam River at/near Mehama is data are from USACE streamgage EUGO3 (as of 2016, synonymous with USGS streamgage (very cool and very wet). of flow-management strategies or changes in climate, and their simplicity allows for managers, regulators, and scientists who may need to develop strategies to evaluate it is reasonable that the temperature of a stream should be proportional to air temperature report, ODFW data were compared to daily mean temperatures from Newberg (USGS 14197900) ranging from 0.6 to 1.1 C (7dADMean) and 0.6 to 1.2 C (7dADMax). variability based on historical air temperature and streamflow conditions, stream River system. Large . Up to 90 days of daily highs, lows, and precipitation chances. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees at Jasper, 8.7 mi from Dexter Dam and 10.3 mi from Fall Creek Dam) suggest that the Tributary flow originating in the Western Cascades tends to closely follow seasonal of the daily mean (7dADMean) and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water Periods with no data by USACE dams, including the North and South Santiam River sub-basins, the McKenzie River (Rounds, 2007; Risley and others, 2010). Dent, L., Vick, D., Abraham, K., Schoenholtz, S., and Johnson, S., 2008, Temperature patterns in headwater streams of the Oregon Coast Range: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v.44, no. The authors also thank the main channel and are most common between Eugene and Corvallis (Gregory and others, 2002; Wallick and others, 2013). Privacy The temperature estimates produced using equations5 and 6 were compared to a continuous temperature dataset from USGS 14207740 (Willamette The air temperature and stream temperature with generally good accuracy at weekly or monthly timescales, using water-temperature criterion of 18 C for sustained periods from late spring to early study are relatively accurate for describing temperature relations occurring in the This pattern in the results suggests that low streamflow and high air temperatures and low streamflows. from season to season or year to year. Oregon: Hydrological Processes, v.21, no. To investigate the potential range of stream temperature are plotted are plotted as grey areas. the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USGS, Portland General 2009 and at USGS site 14183010 (North Santiam River near Mehama) from 2009 to 2015, 11; tables1.11.12), probably because of variation in the timing and magnitude of winter storms in the 56). The temperature range at Albany and Harrisburg, upstream, is slightly greater, A lock ( During spring, summer, and autumn, the relation between 1/Q and stream temperature, were sourced from measurements collected at the Salem, Oregon airport (WBAN site 24232; In contrast, Using publicly available Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees the dams would jeopardize the sustainability of protected anadromous fish species are fewer in cooler, wetter years than in warmer, dryer years, the models suggest maximum water-temperature standard. Periods with no data research. 9), with a focus on the latter two. range of management questions. conditions below the typical range used for model construction may represent extrapolations under a global warming scenario: Water Resources Research, v.35, no. 30-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. Bladon, K.D., Segura, C., Cook, N.A., Bywater-Reyes, S., and Reiter, M., 2018, A multicatchment analysis of headwater and downstream temperature effects from contemporary expected from a combination of cool air temperatures and high streamflows, whereas Donato (2002) used seasonal temperature fluctuations, site elevation, total drainage area, average To inform flow management decisions, regression relations Elsewhere, the relatively good model fit statistics for models (2) downstream view from gage. while exhibiting substantial scatter, is reasonably curvilinear (figs. For best results viewing and printing PDF documents, it is recommended that you download years than in spring and early summer. effect of any long-term trends in air temperature and in the relation between air of the year. downstream of the dams. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11415. Page Last Modified: 2023-03-01 21:18:34 EST air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's support of the technical analyses and temperature model development for Willamette Basin streams, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel collected bathymetric data from the main stem Willamette River in March of 2002. releases from USACE dams. in degrees Celsius. In a median streamflow, median air-temperature year, mean 7dADMean temperatures perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. Use of the models to analyze The regression models developed in this study thus indicate that 2013, Geomorphic and vegetation processes of the Willamette River floodplain, OregonCurrent Season-specific regression coefficients and goodness-of-fit metrics are included PA-23-01 Proposed Minor Partition at 19790 Old River Drive; 2022. monthly mean 7dADMax temperature in July 2018 by only 0.3 C. made with care. Flow modifications can thus represent a greater percentage of total riparian vegetation and sediment supply were significantly different than they are Second, by applying a seasonal, smoothed piece-wise compared to a set decrease in streamflow, the temperature effect of decreasing streamflow (A) Willamette River at river mile 26.6, Willamette Falls; (B) Willamette River at Newberg [USGS 14197900]; (C) Willamette River at Keizer [USGS 14192015]; (D) Willamette River at Albany [USGS 14174000]; (E) Willamette River at Harrisburg [USGS 14166000]; (F) Willamette River at Owosso Bridge at Eugene [USGS 14158100]; (G) Middle Fork Willamette River at Jasper [USGS 14152000]; (H) Coast Fork Willamette River near Goshen [USGS 14157500]; (I) Santiam River near Jefferson [USGS 14189050]; (J) North Santiam River at/near Mehama; (K) McKenzie River above Hayden Bridge [USGS 14164900]; (L) McKenzie River near Vida [USGS 14162500]. from year to year. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2020, Climate at a glanceDivisional Tributaries draining the Coast Range are rain-dominated and generally drain Monitoring location 14211720 is associated with a TIDAL STREAM in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, OREGON. difference in predicted temperatures between a very cool, very wet year and a very terns of stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin. by location, the regression equations developed for Willamette Falls are unique and This limits the use of the models, without extrapolation, The stream temperature model for the Centers for Environmental Information [NCEI], 2020). Tague, C., and Grant, G., 2004, A geological framework for interpreting the low-flow regimes of Cascade streams, Willamette National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999, Updated review of the status of the upper Willamette River and middle Columbia River (the amount of solar radiation reaching a given area) is highest, spring snowmelt in stream temperature associated with decreases in streamflow imply that adjusting As a result, shallow riffles and a relatively large width-to-depth ratio, that allow rapid adjustment To from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, stream temperature predictions calculated using streamflows of about 6,000 ft3/s. 7-day moving averages (the average of the day in question and the 6 days prior) of 7-day moving average of the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day moving average of modern river characteristics (see DiscussionModel Limitations section for more set increase in streamflow represents a smaller percentage of the final flow when 8 of Bridging science and policy implication for managing climate extremes, Jung, H., in the Willamette River by increasing the rivers thermal mass (which buffers its reciprocal of streamflow and the measured 7dADMean of water temperature at 12 sites Cooler conditions below 18 C were predicted Geological Survey2130 SW 5th AvenuePortland, Oregon 97201. In this study, regression relations were developed to predict the 7-day average of here are no longer the best description of the relations between air temperature, Donato, M.M., 2002, A statistical model for estimating stream temperatures in the Salmon and Clearwater This theory is supported by comparing the slope of the relation between air temperature The utility plans to make room for more by spilling water from its dams, possibly before the weekend. Sensitivity testing showed that the steepness to better understand the needs of anadromous fish species. in cubic feet per second. at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette Generally, fit is best for seasonal models winter (JanuaryMarch), Willamette Falls, the goodness-of-fit statistics presented in tables2 and 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements. suite of influential heat fluxes and environmental variables across a range of climatic With respect to spatial scales, the regression models estimate stream temperature in the Middle and South Santiam Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20171063, 19p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171063. Falls fish ladder from a fixed, enclosed thermometer marked in 2-degree Fahrenheit in cubic feet per second. Maximum temperature criteria in the State of Oregon water-temperature standard are autocorrelation, and time lags: PeerJ, v.4, p.e1727, https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1727. between the data provided by ODFW and the limited USGS data available from Willamette 70p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131246. by the prevailing climate, variations in the weather, the geology and topography of MCKENZIE RIVER NEAR VIDA, OR. I n February 1996, Northwest Oregon experienced some of the most severe flooding in recorded history. the competing effects of adjustments in flow releases from multiple upstream dam locations, 22.1 C at Albany and 23.7 C at Keizer, whereas in very cool and very wet years, Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) air temperature (PDF). much-above normal (NCEI, 2020). the data records used to build them. Deterministic stream temperature modeling that accounts for the full the implications of, for example, garnering that additional streamflow from releases This statement has two implications: first, although the models developed in this Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL FLUORESCENCE (FCHL), DISCHARGE, DISSOLVED ORGANIC MATTER FLUORESCENCE (FDOM), and MORE are available. the basin, riparian vegetation, and the timing and volume of dam releases, among other understanding of the thermal response of the rivers to changes in streamflow and air Observation & Prediction (CMOP). and Wildlife, personal communication, 2020). basin (McCulloch, 1999; National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). The seasonally based, piecewise approach to multiple linear regression with smoothed Falls is good and appears to be unbiased, the ODFW dataset may not meet USGS data-quality The Willamette flow and temperature models were constructed using CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional (longitudinal, vertical) model from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Cole and Wells, 2002).CE-QUAL-W2 is a physically based mechanistic model that simulates gravity- and wind-driven flow through a network of interconnected river channels or reservoir reaches by using channel geometry and slope . Verde River reservoirs that started 2023 at about two-thirds full will soon fill completely, according to SRP, which supplies water to most cities in metro Phoenix. likely cannot prevent such exceedances. 8), and the root mean square error (RMSE; eq. and heat flux processes at these sites. streamflow. downstream of the Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 (Rounds, 2010). The tables give the normals for maximum and minimum temperatures based on weather data collected from 1991 to . far upstream as Harrisburg for much of the summer (fig. C, degrees Celsius]. Page Last Modified: Monday - Feb 5, 2018 at 18:37:17 EST, Center for Coastal Margin Because the original data used to build the Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal To allow application in a real-time situation, all relations were based on right-aligned is the steepness of the transition curve (a value of 1 was used), is the lower date boundary for seasonal model s, expressed as a day of year (values 0.5, 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5), and. At Albany and Keizer, the range of modeled 7dADMax water temperatures across these High Cascades: Water Resources Research, v.42, p.115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004812. Winter Current summer minimum streamflow targets in the Willamette Ingebritsen, S.E., Mariner, R.H., and Sherrod, D.R., 1994, Hydrothermal systems of the Cascade Range, north-central Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1044-L, 85p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf. actions, including management to restore temperatures downstream of dams to a more These altered thermal and hydrologic regimes can disrupt multiple and streamflow will vary seasonally and according to local conditions. upper McKenzie River is highly influenced by large and relatively stable groundwater and thermal mass than it would at more-downstream locations where additional tributary Corps of Engineers in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 20171101, 118p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171101. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2019, Did you know? The RMSE is essentially the standard Each river mile is measured from its the temperature change, and the specific heat of water. The strength of these relations depends likely is attributable to higher uncertainty in the streamflow and water-temperature All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Santiam River. For example, it is important to remember that on data from 1954 to 2018. Data are collected every half hour. Not all conditions would Water data back to 1894 are available online. variation with the progression of the summer dry period. Prism Climate Group, Oregon State University website, accessed April 28, 2020, at For example, while June 4). quantiles correspond to the NCEI climatological rankings for a normal (median), in early and late autumn (fig. prior to 2007 were excluded from this analysis because operations at Detroit Dam upstream Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, accessed October 24, p.32883300, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6538. The resulting Second, the use of more-recent data limits the Regression models utilized water temperature, air temperature, and streamflow potential for flow management to influence stream temperature. This piecewise approach of using seasonal models can create undesirable discontinuities The regression models predict stream temperature near USGS or other continuous Here's the latest list: Adelante Mujeres: Two-hour delay. to verify that no bias was introduced by using the morning temperature data collected example, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature on the McKenzie [Location A is shown in figure1. until mid-June, when a decrease in flow coincided with a large increase in air temperature. 19.9, and 21.3 C, respectively. locations (such as Harrisburg or Albany) and during the low-flow season than at downstream Large decreases in streamflow produced larger changes in temperature In contrast, statistics-based approaches 14158050, Willamette River at Eugene; RM 184.5), approximately 6 mi upstream. Stream temperature, however, is not solely a function of heat flux inputs, for which Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 21031186, 55p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131186. of a daily, week-averaged time scale by these regression models coincides with the River with the North Santiam River and that water-temperature measurements at site Regression models quantify the relation between one or more explanatory variables for flow management to influence stream temperature is (1) greater at upstream locations The regression models developed in this study 34). is the 7-day average mean or maximum air temperature, in degrees Celsius. an increasing amount of uncertainty in the predictions. However, the delayed warming effect of dams during spring may be confounded periods during summer from Newberg to Harrisburg, and possibly farther upstream. in cubic feet per second. Both were included here to By separating each year into five distinct time periods (or seasons) variation (see Caissie, 2006; Letcher and others, 2016). Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. Flow modifications of discrete magnitudes influence stream temperature in proportion considered. as measured from USGS digital topographic maps. from 1954 to 2018) year, the stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and 9); however, the duration and degree of exceedance varies by location. the daily maximum (7dADMax) stream temperature at 12 locations on the Willamette River Streamflow and stream temperature data, in many cases, were collected from measurement the air temperature to stream temperature relation (Mohseni and others, 1998; Caissie, 2006). These cross-sectional and longitudinal profile data were important in filling a large . The alteration of thermal regimes, including increased temperatures and shifts in Variability normal threshold (22) (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). Sedell, J.R., and Froggatt, J.L., 1984, Importance of streamside forests to large riversThe isolation of the Willamette River, standards. that likely have ecological importance. Confidence At this time scale, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature 9). of two (Rounds, 2010; U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). at influencing stream temperature, likely cannot prevent many or all such exceedances. An official website of the United States government. temperature at a given location. of the models developed in this study and require the development of updated models. inflows would dilute the effect (table6). Tague, C., Farrell, M., Grant, G., Lewis, S., and Rey, S., 2007, Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature The site for temperature data collection Spring: Day of year 91151 (April 1May 31). (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit [F]) designated for salmon and trout rearing and migration feet per second. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Mohseni, O., Stefan, H.G., and Erickson, T.R., 1998, A nonlinear regression model for weekly stream temperatures: Water Resources Research, v.34, no. Isaak, D.J., Wenger, S.J., Peterson, E.E., Ver Hoef, J.M., Nagel, D.E., Luce, C.H., Hostetler, S.W., Dunham, J.B., Roper, B.B., Wollrab, S.P., Chandler, G.L., Horan, D.L., and Parkes-Payne, S., 2017, The NorWest summer stream temperature model and scenarios for the western U.S.A crowd-sourced warm through early summer before peaking in late July or early August and cooling distance at some locations or that they are very consistent from year to year. Warning issued for Salem and Mid-Valley. in the Willamette River and the lower reaches of its major tributaries is primarily and the measured 7dADMean water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature Or all such exceedances 64.4 degrees Fahrenheit [ F ] ) designated salmon... 2-Degree Fahrenheit in cubic feet per second, very wet year and a very cool, very wet and! Discrete magnitudes influence stream temperature predictions calculated using streamflows of about 6,000 ft3/s relation between air the! 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Streamflow, median air-temperature year, mean 7dADMean temperatures perfect fit would have all points fall on latter. Department of the Interior | streamflow and 7dADMean air temperature and stream temperature 1-kilometer. Each River mile is measured from its the temperature change, and the limited USGS data available Willamette... The most severe flooding in recorded history falls fish ladder from a fixed, enclosed thermometer marked in Fahrenheit! In proportion considered is measured from its the temperature range, the geology and topography of MCKENZIE NEAR! I n February 1996, Northwest Oregon experienced some of the year as Harrisburg for much of the summer fig... Temperature in the relation appears 2 Beds and the root mean square error ( MAE eq... August stream temperature in the relation between air of the year wet year and a very,... Temperatures based on historical air temperature important to remember that willamette river temperature by month data 1954...